How it works: Choose a persona that matches your situation, set your investment amount (DCA or lump sum), pick a what-if scenario, and see a projection for your chosen target year. Everything updates in real time as you adjust.
Price model: Projections use a power-law model calibrated to Bitcoin's 15-year price history. The base formula scales with time since Bitcoin's genesis block (January 3, 2009), then adjusts for four drivers: nation-state adoption, corporate treasury allocation, inflation expectations, and your chosen scenario. Today's starting price is fetched live.
Scenarios & events: "Cautious," "Growing," and "Accelerating" represent different levels of global Bitcoin adoption. You can also layer on a what-if event (e.g. a banking crisis, sovereign ETF wave, or mining crackdown). Each event has a historical bias — some tend to push the price up, others down — and all widen the uncertainty range, because real-world outcomes are never certain.
Confidence range: The "between X and Y" range reflects model uncertainty. It widens the further out you project and widens further when you add an event. The range is asymmetric — an event with historical upside bias stretches the top of the range more, and vice versa. This is honest: nobody can predict the future precisely.
DCA vs. lump sum: For dollar-cost averaging, we simulate your purchase at every interval (weekly, biweekly, or monthly) between now and your target year, using the projected price at each point. For lump sum, a single purchase is made at today's price. Both modes show your total BTC accumulated and projected portfolio value over time on the chart.
Important: This tool is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Past performance and models do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.