Bitcoin Investment Simulator

How it works: Choose a persona, set your investment amount (DCA or lump sum), pick a scenario, and see a projection for your target year. Everything updates as you adjust.

Price model: Projections use a power-law model calibrated to Bitcoin's 15-year price history. The base formula scales with time since the genesis block (January 3, 2009), then adjusts for four drivers: nation-state adoption, corporate treasury allocation, inflation expectations, and your chosen scenario. The starting price is fetched live.

Scenarios & events: "Cautious," "Growing," and "Accelerating" represent different levels of global Bitcoin adoption. You can layer on a what-if event like a banking crisis, sovereign ETF wave, or mining crackdown. Each event carries a historical bias (up or down) and widens the uncertainty range.

Confidence range: The "between X and Y" range reflects model uncertainty. It widens the further out you project, and widens again when you add an event. The range is asymmetric: an event with upside bias stretches the top more, and vice versa.

DCA vs. lump sum: For DCA, the simulator buys at every interval (weekly, biweekly, or monthly) between now and your target year at the projected price. For lump sum, one purchase at today's price. Both modes show total BTC accumulated and projected portfolio value on the chart.

Important: Educational purposes only. Past performance and models do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.